There are times, luckily for me, when it doesn't take a genius to predict the future. So I stand confidently before you today when I tell you that the CD is on its way out as a way to store computer data.

It'll join some distinguished company in retirement. Only a few of us are left who could even recognize the 5 1/4-inch floppy disk (the last disk that really was, well, floppy). The 3 1/2-inch floppy disk, a big deal in its time, is so rarely found these days that you often need to special order it if you want a drive on a computer.

A common reason is forcing these retirements. Computer programs and the data they create grow faster than a golden retriever puppy. So there is always a need for new removable storage devices that can hold more stuff.

When CDs came along as storage devices, it was hard to picture a time when 640 megabytes of storage wouldn't be enough. But I also felt the same way when I bought my first hard disk. It held 5 megabytes of data.

Windows Vista, the eventual successor to Windows XP, isn't even available on CD, at least in test versions. The program and the related programs that come on the DVD for it occupy just under 3 gigabytes of space. And keep in mind that many of the files on that disc are compressed to save space.

So we can all agree the CD is doomed. What should you do?

First, don't panic. The CD will fade, not disappear, and there will be at least a couple of years of overlap as the recordable DVD becomes the new kind of storage. Besides, all DVD drives are backward-compatible --- computer lingo for saying your CDs work in them, too.

Second, next time you buy a computer, make sure the drive that comes with it can both play and record DVDs. And keep in mind that the double-density DVD, which holds more data than the first-generation DVD, will be the standard. So your computer's drive should work with both types of DVDs.

Third, gradually begin transferring data stored on CDs to DVDs. Then keep both the original CD and the new DVD. Truth is, the best reason to do this has nothing to do with the demise of the CD. It provides a second copy of your most precious data. For my money, both DVDs and CDs are frightening storage devices. Both can be destroyed by too much sunlight, scratches and dumb luck.

Because CDs and DVDs can be fragile, those of you with really important data should consider another option. It won't replace your DVD drive but would become a practical way to keep backup data safely. I'm talking about an add-on hard disk.

Some of you will feel comfortable adding a second internal hard disk drive. Others may want to do what I do at home: Use an external hard disk that connects to your computer using a USB port. The only good candidates for external hard disks are those with the newer USB 2.0 ports. The first generation of USB ports wasn't very fast.

I like having an external hard disk. It's a speed demon when compared to DVDs or CDs. And since I keep it connected to my computer, I avoid the hassle of searching for a disk and going through the mechanics of copying to a disk when I need to save something. I just drag the data to be saved to the second hard disk. I'm as lazy as the next guy, and that ease of use means that I am more likely to make a duplicate copy of some essential bit of data.

The advantages don't stop there. I firmly believe that hard disks are less likely to malfunction, at least over the first five years, than CDs. And since my hard disk connects to a USB port, the saved data move with me when I use another computer, or even when I replace my computer with a new one.

You'll pay about $200 for an external hard disk. They're easy to find in almost any big computer store. Since they've become popular in the last year or so, manufacturers have worked hard to create disks that are literally plug-and-play. Just plug them into a port, and installation is over.

We've spent a lot of time today on storage. That's because it really is the most important part of your computer, which is simply a gadget designed to work with data. The data itself --- your family pictures, letters, e-mails and tax records --- are worth more than even the fastest PC.

So think of me as a low-rent prophet who appears before you today with word from the future.

While it may not be as dramatic as the winner of the second race at Belmont, it will offer even larger payoffs.

tecbud@ajc.com