At times when I feel especially demented, I write about what I think the future will bring for technology.

If a baseball team had my win/loss record for predictions, it would get a new manager. Years ago I predicted America Online would fold within months. No one told AOL, and it chugs along as the No. 1 Internet provider.

I slog on as well, undaunted. Here is what I see as far as technology available to the typical consumer five years from now:

> High-definition: The other day I was looking at some of my digital photographs using my 42-inch HDTV set as the display. The resolution of my pictures --- taken with a professional digital camera --- didn't measure up to an HDTV broadcast picture when displayed on the big screen. While current digi-cam resolution is fine on a small computer monitor, consumers will demand that their photos maintain sharpness when shown on a big HDTV screen.

I also think the wide-screen HDTV set format will influence the format used by cameras. The current format is based on what was offered by a 35 mm film camera. Over time, still photography and certainly home video will go wide-screen. Some camera companies have already experimented with wide-screen cameras in Japan.

> Computing: When I first used a computer in 1981, long before IBM introduced its IBM Personal Computer (the machine that coined the name PC), I worked at a terminal connected to a large mainframe. All my data, all my programs, were stored on that large computer. Many users could share the same data and programs.

A back-to-the-future trend in computing is a sure bet. Computing is already becoming a network activity because of the Internet. That move toward networking will continue. Instead of one large single network, it will be a case of networks within networks. Some of my information and data will stay on a personal network at home, but some programs will be rented as I need them from the larger public network.

One great advantage is that, no matter whether I'm using a palm-size PDA or working from home on a larger computer, I'll have access to the same programs and same data. Odds are, to throw in another prediction, I'll connect to all those networks wirelessly --- whether I'm at home or on the road.

> Work: Remember when telecommuting was the buzzword? The stories in magazines, newspapers and on TV made you believe you'd soon be able to do most of your work from home wearing pajamas. But over time it became clear employers were leery of a stay-at-home work force. And as the economy turned down, employees were just glad to have a job, even if it meant actually going to work.

Telecommuting will eventually flourish, especially in cities with a high percentage of folks commuting by automobile, maybe even within my five-year time frame. Gasoline prices and long commutes will force the issue. High-speed Internet access in most homes will make working from home possible.

> News: The trend toward reading the news online will grow. That will both delight and frighten publishers. They will increasingly try to charge for access to online news, but mostly they'll fail. If newspapers limit access to paying customers, other Web sites that aggregate news will fill the gap by offering free access in return for the dubious privilege of having your reading interrupted by online advertising. As publishers figure all that out, they'll offer free access and --- you guessed it --- flood you with advertising.

Print newspapers will do their best to lose circulation by raising prices and aiming at an elite clientele.

Advertising will be targeted to the high-income subscribers who will get a print edition as well as access to added data kept online.

> Entertainment: It will be difficult to know where movies stop and video games begin. The interactive movie and television show --- with audience participation --- will become common. Viewers will be able to compete for the prizes on quiz shows, even shoot at the bad guys on cop shows. Regular movies and TV shows will still dominate, but interactive TV will gain the same kind of popularity as the reality show of today.

Like I said, my success at predicting the future is pretty dismal. But I will leave you with one prediction that comes with a 100 percent money-back guarantee.

I thankfully predict that --- five years from now --- you won't remember what I just predicted.

tecbud@ajc.com