At the start of each new year, I dust off my crystal ball and offer my predictions of what wonders high tech will bring.

I'd hate to calculate my batting average on these predictions. I remember, many years ago, predicting that America Online would go out of business. I called the service "training wheels for the Internet." I said that as Internet use became more common, those training wheels wouldn't be necessary. I explained, in a perfectly logical way, that people wouldn't continue to pay premium prices for services such as AOL. Instead they'd opt for the cheapest ISP available.

Of course, AOL didn't fold. In fact, it became the largest Internet provider. No one told AOL I had condemned it to death.

So enjoy my predictions, but keep in mind that I know how to say "I was wrong" in at least six languages. I've had a lot of practice.

I'll start the predictions with my best shot: The day has finally come when all our gadgets will come out of the box willing to talk to each other. It's already happening.

For instance, I routinely use the television in my den to view photos and listen to music stored on my home computer. A simple wireless connection to my home network and a small computer connected to my TV make that possible. But that's not all. I can hook up my digital camera to the television and view slide shows of the photos I take by attaching a cable to connect the camera and TV.

All this is just the start. There are already refrigerators with their own Internet connection. That means the day is coming when ordinary people --- not just the rich or foolish --- will own refrigerators that track expiration dates on milk and create shopping lists as you use up the bacon and eggs in your refrigerator.

I'm also fairly confident of my second prediction: The whole idea of intellectual property --- of owning an idea, a song, a movie or a book --- will undergo major changes. Despite the efforts of hotshot law firms, it seems inevitable that copies of movies and music will increasingly be passed around on the Internet at no cost.

You don't have to look very hard to find sites on the Internet where you can download, for free, computer programs that cost hundreds and even thousands of dollars. Digital copies of movies often hit the Internet before they come to your favorite movie theater.

I'm not championing this. I'm simply saying that no matter what publishers and motion picture companies come up with as a copy protection scheme, it'll be defeated. No matter how many lawsuits are filed, the lure of free information and the worldwide nature of the Internet will prevail. The world has changed, and no amount of wishing will undo that.

A lot of changes technology brings are pleasant. It's hard to argue with the convenience of watching a DVD movie on a big-screen television. I also love being able to play computer games, keep up with friends by e-mail and browse the Web.

Another pleasant trend that will continue: Technology is one of the few market niches where prices routinely go down. You sure won't see that at the car dealership or the grocery store.

That means the big plasma or LCD television, once way beyond the reach of your very finest credit card, will soon be affordable. I know it's hard to hang on, hard to resist those stunning images. But I promise you that the $6,000 television of today will be sold for $800 or less within a few years.

Technology manufacturers must recoup the research-and-development cost for products on the leading edge. And, during the time when few people can afford super-expensive gadgets, small production runs keep prices high. When any gadget reaches critical mass, prices take a nose dive. If you believe in history as a predictor, just check what folks paid for the first VCRs, calculators and DVD players.

But some of the gifts brought by technology are frightening to unwrap. Computer crime has moved from an occasional annoyance to a real threat. Organized crime has moved in, and many of the schemes are increasingly effective and frightening. It's not just the fools who are at risk. Ordinary, intelligent people such as yourself are threatened.

Law enforcement takes these threats seriously. But just as it is unlikely that folks will stop robbing banks, the criminals aren't going away. The stupid ones will get caught. Those who remain will be increasingly sophisticated and dangerous.

There's one last prediction I would love to make. I'd like to boldly say that technology will finally be easy to use. That you'll be able to grab the latest gizmo from the store, plug it in and leave the manual in the box.

But I can't do that. Other than the occasional expense account, I don't write fiction.

tecbud@ajc.com